Risk Assessment Process

Six step process: Determining which pipes to replace and which to save

Giving your data Super Powers

Fracta’s LoF application provides detailed insights into the current condition of your pipeline network, as well as a highly accurate and granular risk profile for every pipe segment in your system using machine learning, a subset of artificial intelligence.

Fracta’s CoF is a geospatial analysis software solution that provides detailed insights into the various potential consequences of your pipeline system, allowing you to provide a financial value that is appropriate for your utility’s location.

The final step combines LoF and CoF into the TotalRisk, which gives a balanced and comprehensive view of your pipeline network risk.

The following outlines the steps towards a quality risk assessment from Fracta:

1. Import, Normalize and GEOlayer the Water Mains with Geographic and Environmental Data

Fracta normalizes the utility data, which is a data science term meaning the data is transformed into the data type and form that the machine-learning model understands, and then imports it into the Fracta's system. Around 200 geographical and environmental variables, potentially impacting the condition of a water main, are layered over the utility service area to help the machine learning model in better break predictions.

2. Predict the LoF using Machine Learning

Fracta trains and validates the Machine Learning algorithm which then calculates the correlation between the parameters and historical breaks and builds a model of the system. The output of the Machine Learning analysis is an accurate prediction for the LoF for all water main segments in the distribution system.

3. Calculate the Financial TotalRisk

Once the LoF Score is determined, Fracta calculates the CoF value using information extracted from your water main data, as well as internal environmental datasets. Using this information our geospatial algorithm can transform the consequence of a failure in a pipe into dollar amounts based on an individual utility’s cost structures. Costs are divided into Direct and Indirect costs that represent the economic, social and environmental components of the Triple bottom line approach. Fracta’s research will guide some default values for cost inputs (based on national standards and averages), but cost values can be edited based on individual utility needs and will make your CoF results more accurate for your location.

4. Determine the TotalRisk

With the predicted LoF and calculated CoF, the TotalRisk is determined by multiplying the LoF percentage by the CoF Cost dollar amount. The TotalRisk Cost is calculated for each water main segment and aggregated for a total amount for the entire distribution system.

5. Plan Jobs

Once a utility has calculated the LoF, CoF and TotalRisk, Fracta's Job Planner can decide upon an actionable plan to rehabilitate, replace or do further inspections on water mains. Fracta's Job Planner automates the process of selecting “jobs”, which enables asset managers, engineers and planners to compare different projects to determine the most cost-effective ones to mitigate the risk of aging water distribution mains.

6. Visualize and Apply Results to Support Asset Management Decision Making

Armed with the CoF Score, CoF Cost and TotalRisk, utilities can now focus on asset management and risk mitigation strategies. Engineers, planners and management can now make quick, accurate and affordable decisions regarding:

• Repair and replacement

• Capital Improvement Plans for the next 2, 5, or 10 years

• Changes to operating conditions

• Further condition assessment

• Rate increases and case studies

• Leak detection targeting

• Valve maintenance

• Educating boards and commissions